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Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Is 2012 Turning The Wrong Way?

     2012 was getting off to blazing start from weekend one; now we're heading into weekend 34 and the fast pace has seemed to loose some steam. The first quarter of the year was one of the most attended first quarters ever, but attendance has dropped out of the top 10 for every summer month. There were many summer disappointments; Battleship, Dark Shadows, The Watch, Rock of Ages, and Thats My Boy. Ted, Magic Mike, Madagascar 3, Brave, and Avengers were the summer surprises; The Dark Knight Rises and Amazing Spider Man did what they were expected to do. August has also been dull; Bourne Legacy has been the highest opener at $38 million, and Total Recall, Expendables 2, Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3, Sparkle, and the July holdovers haven't helped this month much, except for Batman.
      September and October look interesting for 2012. The only sequels are Resident Evil 5, Paranormal Activity 4, Taken 2, and Silent Hill 3D. November in my opinion should be strong, but December looks pale in comparison to past Decembers. The Hobbit should do gangbuster numbers, but everything else looks like hit or miss.
      So why is 2012 waning? The year was shattering records, now 2011, which was one of the slowest years since the early 90's, is outpacing it in some weekend totals. Most sequels and remakes this summer fell short or well short of their predecessors; 17 movies have crossed the $100 million mark so far, this time last year 20 movies had passed. The price of ticket sales hasn't changed much and 3D actually cant be blamed this time. Less appealing movies can be a factor, plus the improvement of the economy and the Olympics could have played a small role. There have also been unfortunate events that have happened over the summer that in a way could've affected box office.
     Will the fall and holiday movie seasons recover? Many original movies have broken out this year; Ted, The Vow, Lorax, 21 Jump Street, and Safe House to name a few; will September-December be able to duplicate? The public has been seeming to want more original movies and less 3D, sequels, prequels, and re-releases, but original movies can be a tricky sell and mostly open less and depend on good word of mouth, reviews, and competition to make top dollar. 2012 is still tracking ahead of 2011 when adjusted for inflation by 3.8%, but it is now lagging behind 2008, 2009, and 2010. I believe 2012 will pick back up. I doubt the year will see the blistering pace again that we saw from January-March, but I believe that the remaining four months of the year will produce a few more breakout original hits and hopefully will get 2012 back ahead of 2008 and 2009. Twilight and Hobbit are sure to be big and there seems to be a lot of variety in the next few months. From Avengers to John Carter to Hunger Games, 2012 has seen its ups and downs at the box office, the last four months will be very interesting or "muy interesante" as I like to say.

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