This weekend, March 9-11, should be a mild one at the box office for the openers. The Lorax, last weeks winner, most certainly will claim #1 again. John Carter, which is released by Disney, has became the joke of many film followers lately. Early on, JC was expected to open north of $50 million, but now around $30 million is the average prediction. That 20 million dollar difference is a drastic one for this movie; the reported budget is $250 million. JC will have an extremely difficult time covering that if a $30 million opening is true, even with worldwide receipts factored in. This can mean trouble for Disney. Poor marketing has been the biggest criticism of this movie, as it currently holds a 51% on Rotten Tomatoes.
A Thousand Words should keep quiet this weekend. The new Eddie Murphy vehicle holds a 0% on RT. Ouch. That means the movie has been universally panned by critics, and that may not translate well in revenue this weekend for Paramount.
Silent House, the new horror movie from Open Road Films should do decent business. It currently holds a 49% on RT. Since horror movies aren't generally story driven, the success of this movie will mostly be based on the scare factor and shouldn't be affected by critic scores.
Unless JC finds overnight success, it should finish #2, with Lorax finishing #1 and Silent House and Project X competing for #3 and #4. Act of Valor should finish out the top 5, with A Thousand Words missing out. Next weekend is 21 Jump Street, in two weeks, Hunger Games!